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- Tiffany: Bullish on the Blue Box
- Sean Hannon submits: During the past three weeks in my weekly newsletter EPIC Insights, we have purchased shares in companies that boast an outstanding operating franchise, yet sell at a wide discount to fair value. Our purchases of Allstate ALL, K-Swiss KSWS, and Procter & Gamble PG have gained...
- External links 2009-07-07
- Moving Averages Offering a False Signal
- Sean Hannon submits: As I often discuss in EPIC Insights, I prefer simple technical patterns such as trendlines and moving averages over elaborate systems. By examining clear price points, I can dedicate more time to forecasting than interpretation. When using moving averages (MA) to forecast the future,...
- External links 2009-07-02
- Commodities Are an Excellent Predictor of Future Inflation
- Sean Hannon submits: Commodity prices swing for many different reasons. From 2006 until 2008, rallies were based on the desire of investors to gain exposure to assets that were uncorrelated to stocks and bonds. The subsequent collapse was triggered by the need to exit risky positions and remain liquid....
- External links 2009-06-25
- Market Outlook: Looking Forward to a Data-Heavy Week
- Sean Hannon submits: Last week, the bulls took a beating. Having reigned supreme while the market worked 40% higher from its March low, the bulls seemed invincible. All news was construed to support stocks as the path of least resistance was higher. But over the past five trading days,...
- External links 2009-06-22
- Time to Exit Oil/Gold Pair Trade
- Sean Hannon submits: When making recommendations in EPIC Insights, I always want to maximize my gains. This leads me on a quest to find mispriced securities that can be purchased at low levels and then sold at higher prices in the future. However, I am equally concerned with risk....
- External links 2009-06-10
- In Defense of the Dollar
- Sean Hannon submits: Last week I described how the U.S. dollar was destined to fall 5 to 10% over the coming weeks. While weakness would negatively affect Americans' living standards, a slow, deliberate drop would allow the U.S. economy to evolve and become more competitive in a dynamic world....
- External links 2009-06-04
- As the Dollar Weakens, Consider Commodities
- Sean Hannon submits: As discussed in EPIC Insights, economic textbooks teach us that money should be both a medium of exchange and a store of value. Its use as a medium of exchange is straightforward. As long as two parties agree that they are exchanging items of value, they...
- External links 2009-05-27
- SPY: Looking for a Pullback
- Sean Hannon submits: Since reaching a panic low of 676 on March 9, the S&P 500 closed higher six consecutive weeks before finally pausing. Over that period, the index rose 29% in a methodical manner. Although those rallies are great to catch, they become difficult to trade. Nearly 80%...
- External links 2009-04-28
- Has the Fed Failed?
- Sean Hannon submits: An age-old debate centers on how effective markets are at predicting the future. Those who believe in the efficient market thesis (EMH) are convinced that the markets accurately discount all available information, thus making the current price a true reflection of a stock's fair value. Others...
- External links 2009-07-09
- Market Outlook: Focused on the Trading Range
- Sean Hannon submits: Evolution is a powerful force. Over centuries, our need for survival has led human societies to evolve from groups of cave-dwelling hunters and gathers into our Wal-Mart-shopping modern selves. Just as societies must evolve to survive, so must investors. As a value investor, one...
- External links 2009-08-20
- Taking 3% Short Position as Cliffs Natural Resources Heads Lower
- Sean Hannon submits: The markets rarely do what we want them to. Instead, they seem determined to act in a manner that causes us confusion, frustration, and pain. However, occasionally market activity does confirm our views and allow for profitable trades. When such opportunities occur, we must not allow...
- External links 2009-08-12
- The Dollar Is Heading Higher
- Sean Hannon submits: Fundamental analysis is based on the premise that fair value is a measureable item. By examining financial statements, forecasting future business prospects, and making adjustments for unknown risks, we determine a range of values wherein a stock is cheap and look to buy at a discount...
- External links 2009-08-12
- Chart of the Day - The Dow
- Sean Hannon submits: When we trade along the primary trend of the market, the chances of success increase. At times finding that trend and riding the wave is easy and other times it is a flirtation with frustration. The past three months have been extremely frustrating. Using...
- External links 2009-07-21
- Preparing for a Rally
- Sean Hannon submits: Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average Dow peaked in October 2007, we have witnessed relentless wealth destruction. House prices have been falling for over a year, worldwide stock markets are down nearly 50% and commodity markets have been bludgeoned over the past 2 months. ...
- External links 2008-12-04
- Could the Dow Reach 4000?
- Sean Hannon submits: There are few steadfast investing principles. Dynamic markets constantly change and investors must be willing to adapt their strategies. However, one rule we should always follow is to trade with the primary trend. Trying to trade against the underlying current of the market will surely result...
- External links 2009-02-23
- An Oil / Gold Reflation Pair Trade
- Sean Hannon submits: When making recommendations in my weekly newsletter EPIC Insights, I have always been wary of the risk profile. The portfolio has done extremely well during sell-offs and rallies and I have no interest in surrendering gains by blindly diving into untested ideas. For that reason, one...
- External links 2009-04-21
- Why I'm Bullish on Homebuilders
- Sean Hannon submits: A theme I have consistently discussed in my weekly newsletter EPIC Insights is that over the coming years, hard assets will drastically outperform paper assets. Few things in this market offer any guarantees. However, there are two ideas about which I am certain. One...
- External links 2009-04-07
- The Days of Buy and Hold Are Over
- Sean Hannon submits: Rarely will an investor seek to paraphrase Richard Nixon. However, when Nixon observed in 1971 that "we are all Keynesians now," he established the framework which allows me to comment on the current state of investing. Given the turmoil in markets, large bear market declines, and...
- External links 2009-03-31
- Adding to My Short Position in Potash
- Sean Hannon submits: There are many brilliant people involved in the investment business. Looking to display their mental prowess, some overintellectualize and complicate. Having always felt simple explanations trump elegant ones, I try to avoid overcomplicating my decision-making process. With respect to technical analysis, I often look...
- External links 2009-03-16
- Time to Prepare for a Rally?
- Sean Hannon submits: We are in the midst of a vicious primary bear market. Confronted with such a beast, it is impossible to predict either the extent or duration of the losses. All we can say with certainty is that losses cannot continue indefinitely. Eventually, prices will stabilize and...
- External links 2009-03-10
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