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- Why I'm Bullish on Graco
- Sean Hannon submits: When making fundamental trade recommendations in EPIC Insights, there are two main variables. The first is what we think a stock is worth. This number is under our control and allows for creative thinking to derive the fair value of the operating business. Regardless of what...
- External links 2009-10-15
- Commodities Are an Excellent Predictor of Future Inflation
- Sean Hannon submits: Commodity prices swing for many different reasons. From 2006 until 2008, rallies were based on the desire of investors to gain exposure to assets that were uncorrelated to stocks and bonds. The subsequent collapse was triggered by the need to exit risky positions and remain liquid....
- External links 2009-06-25
- Procter & Gamble: Exposure to Improving Economy
- Sean Hannon submits: When everyone rushes toward the same idea, prices race higher. As a value investor, I gravitate toward what is out of favor. Therefore, sustained rallies neutralize my investment discipline and prevent me from buying solid companies at a discount to fair value. However, when everyone rushes...
- External links 2009-06-23
- Market Outlook: Looking Forward to a Data-Heavy Week
- Sean Hannon submits: Last week, the bulls took a beating. Having reigned supreme while the market worked 40% higher from its March low, the bulls seemed invincible. All news was construed to support stocks as the path of least resistance was higher. But over the past five trading days,...
- External links 2009-06-22
- Why I'm Shorting Visa
- Sean Hannon submits: When I study charts in order to make trade recommendations for EPIC Insights, I look for a few basic ingredients. Trends must be well established so that their continuation or reversal is clear. Also, price targets must be observable. Finally, volume at key turning points helps...
- External links 2009-06-16
- Time to Exit Oil/Gold Pair Trade
- Sean Hannon submits: When making recommendations in EPIC Insights, I always want to maximize my gains. This leads me on a quest to find mispriced securities that can be purchased at low levels and then sold at higher prices in the future. However, I am equally concerned with risk....
- External links 2009-06-10
- The Bear Case for ConocoPhillips
- Sean Hannon submits: Commodity markets have been very strong lately. Nowhere is that more evident than in the price of oil. Since bottoming below $34 in mid-February, oil has more than doubled in four months, and energy companies have done very well. A case in point is...
- External links 2009-06-09
- In Defense of the Dollar
- Sean Hannon submits: Last week I described how the U.S. dollar was destined to fall 5 to 10% over the coming weeks. While weakness would negatively affect Americans' living standards, a slow, deliberate drop would allow the U.S. economy to evolve and become more competitive in a dynamic world....
- External links 2009-06-04
- As the Dollar Weakens, Consider Commodities
- Sean Hannon submits: As discussed in EPIC Insights, economic textbooks teach us that money should be both a medium of exchange and a store of value. Its use as a medium of exchange is straightforward. As long as two parties agree that they are exchanging items of value, they...
- External links 2009-05-27
- Bearish on Homebuilders ETF
- Sean Hannon submits: As I have mentioned many times in EPIC Insights, I always prefer simple technical patterns over quantitative models. When we complicate our analyses, we increase our risk. If a faulty input or one stray assumption works its way into the model, a generally sound approach can...
- External links 2009-05-26
- Why I'm Exiting Cisco
- Sean Hannon submits: As a value investor, I believe every asset is attractive at a certain price. Whenever markets have moved to extremes and presented the opportunity to buy shares at depressed levels, I have been a ready buyer. Since value has outperformed growth in recent years, this approach...
- External links 2009-05-20
- Why I'm Bearish on Amazon
- Sean Hannon submits: When facing complex markets, we are left with two choices. The first is to embrace complexity and, through a combination of financial model and rigorous study, attempt to comprehend what we face. The second approach is to simplify. As I explained in a recent weekly commentary,...
- External links 2009-05-20
- Disney Shares Fully Valued; Time to Sell
- Sean Hannon submits: The Cub Scout motto "Be prepared" has been translated into many languages with slightly different interpretations. In English, the motto is taken to mean that you are always in a state of readiness in mind and body to do your duty. Although my scouting days were...
- External links 2009-05-12
- PE Ratios Aren't Always What They Seem
- Sean Hannon submits: Most investors rely upon Price/Earnings (PE) ratios to determine if a stock price is expensive or not. Typically, this approach works well. Academic studies have shown that stocks trading at low PEs will outperform their high-PE brethren over long periods of time. Knowing this, I often...
- External links 2009-05-05
- SPY: Looking for a Pullback
- Sean Hannon submits: Since reaching a panic low of 676 on March 9, the S&P 500 closed higher six consecutive weeks before finally pausing. Over that period, the index rose 29% in a methodical manner. Although those rallies are great to catch, they become difficult to trade. Nearly 80%...
- External links 2009-04-28
- An Investment Bank Pair Trade
- Sean Hannon submits: The credit crisis-induced recession has battered stock markets and altered long-held beliefs. Companies that felt they could always finance themselves in the commercial paper market disappeared. Those that believed a low stock price would encourage corporate buyers to acquire them now stare at single-digit prices. As...
- External links 2009-04-27
- Moving Averages Offering a False Signal
- Sean Hannon submits: As I often discuss in EPIC Insights, I prefer simple technical patterns such as trendlines and moving averages over elaborate systems. By examining clear price points, I can dedicate more time to forecasting than interpretation. When using moving averages (MA) to forecast the future,...
- External links 2009-07-02
- Tiffany: Bullish on the Blue Box
- Sean Hannon submits: During the past three weeks in my weekly newsletter EPIC Insights, we have purchased shares in companies that boast an outstanding operating franchise, yet sell at a wide discount to fair value. Our purchases of Allstate ALL, K-Swiss KSWS, and Procter & Gamble PG have gained...
- External links 2009-07-07
- Brazilian Bovespa Sinks: Expect More Weakness in the Near Future
- Sean Hannon submits: The global bear market has begun. For over a month, I have warned investors that markets were behaving poorly. Despite the fact that NASDAQ, S&P 500, Russell 3000, DAX, Hang Sang, and Bovespa all reach annual highs during the first two weeks of June, the lagging...
- External links 2009-07-08
- Covering My XTO Short
- Sean Hannon submits: There are many reasons to enter into a trade. Whether the impetus is a belief about long-term value or focuses on short-term price movements, people arrive at investment decisions in different manners. Seeing no need to delve into the merits of each investor's decision-making process, I...
- External links 2009-10-05
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