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- An Unlikely Contrarian Play: Buy the Rally
- The point of Against the Grain is to highlight the virtues of contrarian investing. The guiding principle is that the best way to beat the markets is by hitting 'em where they ain't and zigging when the majority is zagging. After the best run for stocks since...
- Blog posts 2009-04-16
Additional Resources
- Investor Sentiment: Bullish or Bearish?
- David I. Templeton submits: For the last few weeks, I had not looked at the individual investor sentiment reading from the American Association of Individual Investors. I was surprised to see that the bullish sentiment reading was not at a lower level, i.e., like in the 20% range. Historically,...
- External links 2008-10-10
- Investor Sentiment: Caution Returns
- David I. Templeton submits: Over the past month, investor bullish sentiment has continued to trend lower as measured by the 8-period moving average of the bullish sentiment reading. Last week's bullishness reading of 35.09% feel below the long term average of 38.94% as reported by the American Association of...
- External links 2009-10-11
- Bullish Sentiment Continues to Fall
- David I. Templeton submits: The bullish sentiment reading reported by the American Association of Individual Investors fell over 11 percentage points this week. This week's bullishness reading was reported at 21.64% versus last week's reading of 32.91%. The bull/bear spread widened to a negative 35% versus last week's spread...
- External links 2009-02-20
- Bullish Sentiment Drops 30%
- David I. Templeton submits: Individual investor bullish sentiment fell to below 30% this week. This level is approaching levels seen at prior market turning points. Additionally, the bearish sentiment reading came in at 54.88% versus last week's 43.21%. These sentiment levels saw the bull/bear spread become more negative at minus...
- External links 2008-09-12
- U.S. consumer sentiment index tracked.(Brief Article)
- U.S. consumer sentiment index tracked by the University of Michigan fell in early October to 75.4, the lowest level in 13 years. High gasoline prices and economic fallout from hurricane damage took their toll, dropping the consumer sentiment reading below the 76.9 of September.
- Research articles 2005-11-03
- Mich. Consumer sentiment index declines
- The University of Michigan said its final June consumer sentiment index declined to 89.7 from 92.1 in May, but that was an improvement over June's preliminary reading.Economists had expected a final reading of only 87.8, after a preliminary reading earlier this month of 87.2. The index is based on a...
- Research articles 2003-07-07
- Investor Sentiment Decline Continues, Market Grinds Higher
- David I. Templeton submits: For the fourth straight week investor bullish sentiment has continued to decline. The American Association of Individual Investors reports bullish sentiment declined to 24.63% for the period ending February 4, 2009 versus last week's reading of 25.27%. During the week of January 8, the bullishness...
- External links 2009-02-06
- Bearish Sentiment Hits New Record
- John Lounsbury submits: This week the AAII Investors Sentiment poll registered 70.27% bears. This exceeds the maximum previous value listed in the AAII data base. The date of the previous 70% bears is not given in the data base, but it was before the data displayed there,...
- External links 2009-03-11
- Is Michigan's survey lagging on consumer sentiment?
- Recently, it was reported that the University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment for June showed an unexpected decline. The equity markets responded negatively as some of the many investors betting on a strong economic recover Recently, it was reported that the...
- Research articles 2003-06-23
- ZEW Central and Eastern Europe Sentiment Index Shows First Positive Reading in 20 Months
- Edward Hugh submits: Investor confidence in central and eastern Europe entered positive territory for the first time in 20 months in May according to Sentiment Indicator published by ZEW Center for European Economic Research and Erste Bank. May marked the first positive reading on the index since September 2007....
- External links 2009-05-25
- Bullish Investor Sentiment at Lowest Level Since July
- David I. Templeton submits: This week's release of bullish investor sentiment by the American Association of Individual Investors shows bullish sentiment fell to 33.65%. This is the lowest level for the bullishness reading since the bullishness reading was reported at 28.68% for the week of July 16, 2009. The eight...
- External links 2009-10-30
- Investor Sentiment: Uncertain About Equity Markets
- David I. Templeton submits: This week's Sentiment Survey released by the American Association of Individual Investors indicates individual investors are uncertain about the direction of the equity markets. Two week's ago, the level of bullish investor sentiment was reported at 24%. Then last week the bullish investor sentiment level was...
- External links 2009-01-16
- Consumer sentiment falls 2.5% after rate hikes
- However, Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the drop can only be classified as "moderate" compared to previous periods of rate increases, and advises another interest rate rise next month should be expected. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 2.5% from 121.4 points to 118.3 during the...
- News items 2009-11-10
- Bullish Investor Sentiment: Decline Continues
- David I. Templeton submits: Investment strategist refers to the individual investor bullish sentiment indicator as a contrarian measure. Individual investors historically become the least bullish at market bottoms and the most bullish at market tops. As reported by the American Association of Individual Investors, this past week's bullishness...
- External links 2009-01-05
- U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Steady in November
- WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home builder sentiment held steady at a low level in November, according to a survey taken before the government extended a popular tax credit for first-time buyers.The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index was unchanged at 17 for November, below market expectations for...
- News items 2009-11-17
- Home Builder Sentiment Steady in November
- WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home builder sentiment held steady at a low level in November, according to a survey taken before the government extended a popular tax credit for first-time buyers.The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index was unchanged at 17 for November, below market expectations for...
- News items 2009-11-17
- Investor Sentiment and the S&P 500: Bullish or Bearish?
- David I. Templeton submits: Individual investor bullish sentiment rose to 40.94% versus last week's reading of 31.47%. Equally impressive was the decline in bearish sentiment to 39.77% versus the prior week level of 60.84%. The bull/bear spread narrowed to -20% versus last week's spread of -29%. click to enlarge...
- External links 2008-10-17
- Hungarian Business and Consumer Sentiment Both Fall Sharply in October
- Edward Hugh submits: Well, you don't need to be especially adept at reading tealeaves to know which way things are about to move now on the Hungarian economic front. But just in case any of you did have some last, lingering doubts, the latest edition of the GKI sentiment...
- External links 2008-11-05
- US consumer sentiment soars to three-year high in January
- WASHINGTON AFP ? US consumers' spirits soared to the highest level in more than three years in early January, a survey by the University of Michigan showed. A consumer sentiment index, based on the survey, surged to 103.2 points -- the highest since November 2000 -- from 92.6 points...
- Research articles 2004-01-16
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