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- In Today's Calmer Markets, Interest Rates Both Rise and Fall
- Interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds are rising this week, as the government conducts king-sized auctions across a range of maturities, totaling a record $115 billion. Investors are still eager to buy Treasuries, but with a recovery and inflation in the works T-bonds are no longer the only game...
- Blog posts 2009-07-27
Additional Resources
- Treasuries Struggle Alongside Stocks
- Paco Ahlgren submits: Last week, 30-year Treasuries posted their biggest weekly loss since 1987. Normally, one might expect the capital leaving bonds to move into equities, and yet stocks fell. I'm not patting myself on the back, but if you've been reading my articles over the last three weeks,...
- External links 2009-01-25
- Shorting U.S. Treasuries: The Best Trade of the Next Decade
- There is a single chart that makes me a giddy as a young investor that will, hopefully, come into his prime over the next decade. Simultaneously, this chart makes me very worried as an American. The chart is of the yield on the 10 U.S. Treasury since 1962:The trend is...
- External links 2009-12-04
- Shorting Treasuries: What's the Rationale?
- Market Folly submits: Essentially, U.S. Treasuries are setting up to be a great short opportunity. Last week, I laid out a basic thesis for shorting treasuries. We may be early in this call, but present and future actions are sending us signals we simply cannot ignore. The presently increasing and...
- External links 2008-11-13
- Waiting to Short Treasuries
- Jason Kelly submits: Marie sends: "You wrote in late December that you were looking to short Treasuries. Are you still?" Yes. by Jason Kelly
- External links 2009-02-03
- Time to Buy Treasuries
- Denis Gould submits: The bear case for Treasuries seems overwhelmingly powerful. With a median forecast for the budget deficit of 9.9% of GDP this year and 9% in 2010, supply will continue to be huge. The amount of Treasuries outstanding therefore continues to rise, likely to reach 100% of...
- External links 2009-12-09
- The Treasury Short: Still Viable?
- Alan Young submits: For nearly a year, Seeking Alpha has been rife with recommendations to short treasuries, since interest rates were too low, and especially since the over-extended borrowing for TARP etc. would have to lead to higher interest rates. Many investors have tried this...
- External links 2009-04-09
- Why I'm Short Selling Goldman Sachs
- Michael Michaud submits: Scanning the Charts for OpportunityAs I scan the charts this Monday morning for some low-risk high-rewards trade setups for the week, I’m getting updated on this week’s news and upcoming events. The first thing that grabs my attention is this headline. China’s Leader Says He Is ‘Worried’...
- External links 2009-03-16
- Swiss Franc: Caught Short On Long? Blame the Treasury
- The LFB submits: The swissy made dramatic moves in trade on Wednesday, moves that were instigated by the upcoming U.S. government sale of $17 billion dollars of 10 year note debt. An increase in the number of notes in the market decreases the existing note's value and automatically increases the yield paid. The...
- External links 2008-08-07
- Shorting Treasuries with Inverse ETFs
- Chris Fernandez submits:Today is a day to give thanks. I know it’s a little early for Thanksgiving, but I’m talking about being thankful to Uncle Sam and the U.S. government for the bountiful opportunity they have given us to make huge loads of money in a relatively short amount...
- External links 2009-05-27
- Canada expected to increase U.S. holdings.(Short Interests)
- Byline: Jeff Benjamin DETROIT - Canadian institutional investors have become bullish on U.S. Treasuries and investment-grade corporate bonds since the Jan. 1 lifting of a rule that limited the amount of foreign property that registered pension plans and other tax-deferred retirement...
- Research articles 2005-09-19
- Want Recovery? History Says Be Patient. Very Patient.
- Take a long enough perspective, and it is no surprise that what some had been calling the GGBAT the Greatest Global Boom of All Time ended with the GGRSGD the Greatest Global Recession Since the Great Depression. Both the boom and its panicky finale fit neatly into a long, human...
- Blog posts 2009-10-23
- Annaly Capital Management: Epitome of Low Risk, High Reward
- Jawad Ayaz submits: Stabilizing home prices and unfreezing the mortgage market is the paramount focus of US policy makers. The first significant step in this process occurred with the passage of the Housing bill and the US government now explicitly guaranteeing Freddie Mac FRE and Fannie Mae FNM backed...
- External links 2008-08-01
- Treasury Bond Mystery and a Currency Clue
- U.S. Treasuries look so lousy here that shorting them has become the “obvious” trade. But there is more to this mystery than meets the eye, as Justice explores... Jim Grant nailed it in a recent Financial Times piece. Known for their “risk-free return” in more normal times, Grant observes...
- External links 2008-12-24
- Inflation Expectations on the Verge of Breaking Higher
- Thomas MacLeod submits:While the FED, US Treasury and the deflationist camp are continuing to suggest there is little risk of inflation albeit inflation getting out of control in the “foreseeable future”, the bond market itself the crowd is beginning to suggest the contrary. Whichever way you look at it, spreads...
- External links 2009-12-02
- Oil Strategies with MacroShares Up and Down ETFs
- Don Dion submits: To call the recent market for oil “volatile” would hardly do justice to this much-sought-after commodity. The recent roller coaster of global oil demand has left many investors struggling for understanding and set off a ripple effect in the broader market. At the same time,...
- External links 2008-12-11
- Did the Fed Blink First Last Week?
- Clive Corcoran submits: Click to enlarge In Friday's trading the tension between the short end and long end of the US Treasury spectrum saw some rather dramatic adjustments. Surges at both the long and short end were seen but it was the two year note which...
- External links 2009-06-07
- Optimal Portfolio Allocation In A World Without Treasury Securities
- If current projections of future budget surpluses materialize, investing in Treasury securities–an asset class with which investors have long been familiar–could eventually become a thing of the past. This paper examines the extent to which investors' portfolio allocation decisions are likely to be affected by the retirement of all federal...
- White papers 2001-01-17
- Liquidity, Default, Taxes and Yields on Municipal Bonds
- This paper examines the relative yields of Treasuries and municipals using a generalized model that includes liquidity as a state factor. Using a unique transaction dataset, it is able to estimate the liquidity risk of municipals and its effect on bond yields. It is found that a substantial portion of...
- White papers 2005-07-08
- Will Foreign Firms Cherry Pick Ailing U.S. Financial Companies?
- With Wall Street in tatters, will foreign banking concerns swoop in and cherry pick the leftovers? There is some evidence that is happening. Japan's huge Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is picking up 20 percent of Morgan Stanley in a deal valued at $8.5 billion. MUFG will also...
- Blog posts 2008-10-10
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