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- Boeing Heading the Way of GM?
- Stephen Rosenman submits: The market is celebrating the likely end of Boeing's BA strike by ramping up its share price from a low of $40 to yesterday's closing price of $49.80. Unfortunately, for Boeing, the bad news has just begun. by Stephen Rosenman
- External links 2008-10-30
- Apple's Non-GAAP Earnings Are the Real Story
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Apple's AAPL earnings clobbered the analysts' forecasts again. That's not what this article is about. Sure, Apple beat just about every forecast out there. And it did it once more with hands tied behind its back. That's because iPhones sold this current quarter are for the most...
- External links 2009-04-23
- Chevron's Whopping Tax Burden
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Last year, big oil was blamed for enormous profits while dodging their fair share of taxes. Unfortunatedly, with the decline in the price of oil, there is no windfall this year. But pundits and politicos missed the real story of oil's overtaxation. To set the...
- External links 2009-05-08
- Double Standard: How the Analyst Consensus Underrates Apple
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Investors often buy or sell a stock on whether a company's EPS for the quarter is above or below street consensus. Analysts forecast their expectations for a company stripping out one time events, such as a tax settlement or loss on a sale. The investing...
- External links 2009-05-23
- Nickel's Breakout: A Key Economic Indicator?
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Investors should be paying more attention to nickel. Nickel is a critical "tell" as to how the global economy is doing. If you had been following nickel, you would have gotten quite a heads up as the economic train wreck that was coming in 2008. Nickel...
- External links 2009-06-15
- America Movil Benefits From Forex
- Stephen Rosenman submits: I recommended America Movil AMX on April 7, when it was trading at $29 because I postulated that favorable forex would drive earnings. The company had been killed by the weak peso. I predicted that the real and peso would strengthen over the U.S. dollar...
- External links 2009-07-24
- Thompson Creek Leaves the Pack Behind
- Stephen Rosenman submits: When I last posted on Thompson Creek TC on May 7, it was trading at $7.59. This pure play molybdenum miner is currently valued at $14.57, almost double. It has outperformed the SPX and its index XME. Is it time to ring the register? The...
- External links 2009-07-24
- Why Microsoft and Apple's Market Caps Should Be Reversed
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Apple AAPL has a $143 billion market cap, a number that has been roaring up as the company delivers sensational quarters in arguably the most difficult economic environment since the 1930s. In contrast, Microsoft MSFT, after a truly dismal earnings report, dropped a whopping $20 billion...
- External links 2009-07-27
- Beazer Homes: Buy the Biggest Dog and Teach It to Run
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Sometimes it's best not to buy the top-quality companies. This is one of those times when the worst stock can outpace its peers. It's hard for me to give up on buying companies with the best fundamentals. That's my training. But that's not...
- External links 2009-08-10
- Ignore Apple Naysayers: Look at Its Earnings
- Stephen Rosenman submits: The market is finally realizing that Apple's business is best reflected by free cash flow and non-GAAP earnings; because these reflect the high growth high margin iPhone business. GAAP numbers, in contrast, miss it all. I've seen analysts one after another wake up to this...
- External links 2009-09-07
- Are Apple's Earnings Forecasts Too Low?
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Analyst consensus for the quarter is $1.08. Seems way too low. In fact, it's way off base again. After all, the analyst community traditionally undervalues Apple's AAPL ability to make money. The last four quarters, Apple surprised by 8.4%, 10.2%, 13.5%, and 28.1%....
- External links 2009-04-09
- What's in Apple's Wallet? Cash.
- Stephen Rosenman submits: 1. Apple minted money last quarter. Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities rose from $24.49 to $28,145 billion in Q1 2009, a whopping $3.655 billion gain. That's $4.10 a share for one quarter's contribution. Right now Apple's cash is worth $31.60 a share. If...
- External links 2009-03-09
- Boeing Can't Afford Another Strike
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Round 1 is over. Machinists go back to work. Round 2 - the SPEEA negotiations are ongoing. by Stephen Rosenman
- External links 2008-11-02
- Nordstrom's Shopping Spree Ends
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Nordstrom JWN had an excellent day yesterday, rising 24%. Should it have? In my opinion, the stock looks too expensive and needs to be sold. A look back at Nordstom's last two years is in order. Back in 2007, when life seemed good, management felt Nordstrom's debt...
- External links 2008-11-25
- Macy's Insecure Covenants: The Goodwill Trap
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Macy's M carries a large debt burden of $9 billion in large part due to its acquisition of May's Department Stores in 2005. Its operating margins have fallen to 1.24% and profit margins to -0.8%. Should investors be worried? Several analysts present during Macy's most recent...
- External links 2008-12-05
- Nordstrom Walks the Gauntlet Twice
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Nordstrom JWN gets to walk the gauntlet twice in this awful retail market. Once, with its declining sales. And they've been abysmal. November same store sales were down 15.9% with overall sales down 12%. Net profit margins have dropped from 8.4% in Q3 2007 to 3.9%...
- External links 2008-12-12
- Macy's' Goodwill Is a Red Flag
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Macy's M reworked its $2 billion credit facility with JPMorgan JPM and Bank of America BAC so that its covenants will not be tripped by its weak balance sheet. Rather, the credit facility will depend on Macy's EBITDA. Investors breathed more than a sigh of relief,...
- External links 2008-12-23
- Macy's' Problems Have Just Begun
- Stephen Rosenman submits: In my previous two articles ("Macy's' Goodwill Is a Red Flag" and "Macy's Insecure Covenants: The Goodwill Trap"), I wrote about Macy's M problems with debt and its dependence on goodwill to shore up its balance sheet. Macy's has serious other difficulties. by Stephen Rosenman
- External links 2008-12-28
- Five Apple Predictions for 2009
- Stephen Rosenman submits: 1. THE CASH KEEPS PILING UP. Everyone KNOWS Apple AAPL is sitting on a horde of cash. Very few acknowledge that pile is going to get lots bigger. This quarter Apple reported $24.5 billion in cash and short term investments, a whopping $9 billion increase...
- External links 2009-01-04
- Boeing's Bad Balance Sheet May Doom It
- Stephen Rosenman submits: Much has been written about Boeing's murky future. Will its customers cancel orders? Will the 787 ever be delivered? What new production snafu will happen next? However, little has been mentioned about its crumbling balance sheet. In two previous articles, I wrote about Boeing's...
- External links 2009-02-11
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