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- Sudden Debt submits: Nominal GDP growth (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) has turned negative y-o-y for the first time in 50 years . That's no good at all. One chart click to enlarge: DATA: FRB St. Louis ...and... Saturday marked...
- External links 2009-05-04
- A 'Personal' Look at Debt
- Sudden Debt submits: It is common enough to look at debt as a percentage of GDP, DPI, etc. but that's so... impersonal. So here are a couple of very scary charts that look at things from a dollars per person perspective click on charts to enlarge. Debt per person and...
- External links 2009-11-01
- Banks Are Behind the Rally
- Sudden Debt submits: If you are wondering what lead the recovery of broad stockmarket indexes, look no further than the chart below click to enlarge. A comparison of relative performance between S&P 500 yellow line and the KBW bank share index black line, it shows that banks rose almost...
- External links 2009-10-19
- Shipping Market, Afloat on Credit, Remains Volatile
- Sudden Debt submits: A curious thing happened on the way to the market. While global share prices lift and float, nicely above the lows registered last March, something else entirely is happening at sea. First, global share prices. The MSCI World Index ACWI of...
- External links 2009-09-28
- Stuffing Uncle Sam: Is More Trouble Coming for Mortgage Market?
- Sudden Debt submits: In financial market parlance "getting stuffed" is being left with a losing position in a trade because the counterparty to the transaction claims to not recognize it (also known as DK, or Don't Know). It's equivalent to someone dropping their trash on your doorstep and walking...
- External links 2009-09-22
- More Taxes to Support the Financial System, Anyone?
- Sudden Debt submits: Since the subject has been taxes for two posts running...Four decades of unbridled voodoonomics like Friedman's old "the only social responsibility of business is to increase its profits" and more recent neo-liberal screeds, have turned Americans into "Just Say No's" when...
- External links 2009-09-20
- On Bailouts, Inventories and Jobs
- Sudden Debt submits: The "green shoots" that everyone is talking about, and which are greatly responsible for causing the current (dead cat ?) bounce in stocks, are best explained thus: 1. The massive bailout of the financial system (approx. $14 trillion in equity injections, loans and guarantees) prevented its...
- External links 2009-05-10
- From Risk Revulsion and Panic Selling to Risk Appetite and Panic Buying. What's Going On?
- Sudden Debt submits: Spring has sprung violently in all risk markets, from junk bonds to sovereign credits, from financial to alternative energy stocks, from copper and crude oil to ship charter rates. In a word, from risk revulsion and panic selling to risk appetite and panic buying, all in the...
- External links 2009-05-07
- Treasury Yield Watch: How Steep Is My Valley?
- Sudden Debt submits: The steepness of the US Treasury bond yield curve is once again reaching 30+ year record levels; the difference between 10- and 2-year yields is currently at 222 basis points, having previously nearly matched the record 270 bp of 2003 and 1992 (see chart below, click to...
- External links 2009-05-05
- CIT's Bankruptcy and the Trading Sardine
- Sudden Debt submits: CIT, one the world's largest finance companies specializing in lending to medium-sized companies and equipment leasing, just filed for bankruptcy. It is highly unlikely that American taxpayers are going to recoup any of the $2.33 billion of bailout money the company was provided in the form...
- External links 2009-11-02
Additional Resources
- Dubai Seeks Debt Delay, Some Units Cut to Junk
- By Matt Smith and Enjy KiwanDUBAI/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Dubai said on Wednesday two of its flagship firms planned to delay repayment on billions of dollars of debt as a first step toward restructuring Dubai World, the conglomerate that spearheaded the emirate's breakneck growth.The sudden move by the Gulf government...
- News items 2009-11-25
- Dubai Seeks Debt Delay, Some Units Cut to Junk
- By Matt Smith and Enjy KiwanDUBAI/NEW YORK (Reuters UK) - Dubai said on Wednesday two of its flagship firms planned to delay repayment on billions of dollars of debt as a first step towards restructuring Dubai World, the conglomerate that spearheaded the emirate's breakneck growth.The sudden move by the Gulf...
- News items 2009-11-25
- Eight Reasons the Market Is Going Down
- Earnings Call ExcerptHe is Sprott On - Dollar DestructionOne of the folks I like to follow is Eric Sprott. He does not do a blog or seek a lot of publicity, but he has had some of the best performing funds in Canada for many years running, so I...
- Earnings calls 2009-10-29
- Individuals May Be Deleveraging, but the Nation Isn't
- FinancialSpiltMilk submits: This post from OptionARMageddon has some rather sobering charts. While individuals are deleveraging, the first chart shows that we as a nation are still increasing overall debt. Now before you start talking about how we can handle it because it is all relative, check out the...
- External links 2009-06-12
- Assessing Debt Sustainability in Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods
- This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility...
- White papers 2005-12-01
- Credit, Prices and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop
- This paper shows that sudden stops and declines in the foreign capital can be the outcome of the equilibrium dynamics of a flexible price economy with imperfect credit markets. Foreign debt is denominated in units of tradable and a liquidity constraint links credit market access to occur when real shocks...
- White papers 2001-06-01
- Quantitative Implication of a Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops and Asset Prices
- This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of an equilibrium asset pricing model with financial frictions are consistent with the large consumption and current-account reversals and asset-price collapses observed in the "Sudden Stops" of emerging markets crises. Margin requirements set a collateral constraint on foreign borrowing by domestic agents. Foreign...
- White papers 2004-12-01
- FAST FIX AT J. CREW: KEY INVESTOR OUSTS CEO AT DEBT-HEAVY CATALOGER; SEEKS OPERATIONS EXPERT, STRONGER FOCUS ON STORES.
- The sudden departure of J. Crew Chief Executive Howard Socol after less than a year on the job signals that majority shareholder Texas Pacific Group is unhappy. While J. Crew Group Inc.'s cash flow has improved recently, it's unclear whether the c The...
- Research articles 1999-01-11
- Argentine Metrogas Defaults on Debt -- Could Others Follow
- Argentine Metrogas Defaults on Debt -- Could Others Follow Suit? Argentina's largest natural gas distributor Metrogas -- a subsidiary of UK-based BG and Spanish Repsol-YPF-- plans to suspend payments on interest and principal of its $414 million debt. The action may presage similar moves from other companies that...
- Research articles 2002-03-27
- NYT's Ongoing Struggle: "Cash, $37 Million; Debt, $1 Billion"
- So, The New York Times' Q-2 numbers are in and they're not good -- everything is down. Near the end of the narrative portion of the company's 8-K is this unsettling juxtaposition: "At the end of the quarter, cash and cash equivalents were approximately $37 million and total debt was...
- Blog posts 2009-07-23
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