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- How to Gain Equity Exposure with Reduced Volatility
- Most investors out there follow the basic premise that Modern Portfolio Theory, Random Walk and/or Buy and Hold is the best way to invest. Diversify a portfolio and let it ride. Steadily add to your investments and you'll do fine. Well, that's been a painful way to invest for well...
- External links 2008-12-24
- Dull Is Good - J.P. Morgan
- JP Morgan strategists are betting on nothing. Well, not literally, but they are betting on no surprises in the coming months. As long as no shocking news events hit the market in a negative fashion they continue to think that fund flows will support the market as...
- External links 2009-10-28
- Steel Drops Like a Rock
- The latest news on steel imports further confirms a belief we’ve maintained for quite a while – the real economy is substantially weaker than the liquidity driven equity markets would have you believe. The latest report on steel imports from the Census Bureau showed a massive 50% decline in...
- External links 2009-10-28
- Bemused by GDP Figures
- The GDP figure came in better than expected this morning. Who in their right mind would think that Jan Hatzius and the boys at Goldman could be so wrong? Perhaps they aren’t infallible after all? The headline number came in at 3.5% which was better than the...
- External links 2009-10-29
- One Outlier to Another: The Market's Now at an Extreme
- I ran across this great chart at The Sudden Debt Blog. It shows just how extreme the performance of the last 12 months has been. Not only did we overshoot the mean to an extreme March low, but we’re now sitting at an outlier point in terms of...
- External links 2009-11-02
- YRC Worldwide: Trucking in Trouble
- YRC WorldWide YRCW is tanking over 50% on bankruptcy speculation. The large trucking company has been entangled in brutal labor renegotiation’s and is at the heart of the economic downturn with their highly economically sensitive transport based business. On Friday the company reported a $158.7MM loss which...
- External links 2009-11-02
- Cisco: A Lumpy Recovery
- One question stands out from the Cisco CSCO conference call Wednesday evening: QUESTION: Is your confidence increasing that customers’ network utilization rates are high and that CEOs are planning for more than one quarter at a time, implying continued order linearity and visibility? by The Pragmatic Capitalist
- External links 2009-11-05
- China: Is This Classic Post-Bubble Price Action?
- After the spectacular mean reversion of the last 6 months the near-term top in the Shanghai appears to be classic post-bubble price action. Are we staring at years of sideways to down action? by The Pragmatic Capitalist
- External links 2009-11-05
- Rail Traffic Data: Still Recessionary
- The latest rail freight data is not quick to validate Warren Buffett’s “all in” wager on the U.S. economy. The latest data shows another steep annual year over year decline despite vastly improving comps the economy was spiraling to its end at this time last year if you recall....
- External links 2009-11-05
- A Suspicious Dollar Trade
- A large institution was seen buying a large block of UUP call options yesterday just prior to today’s ramp in shares on positive news. UUP was halted earlier today for news pending as DB shares announced a new share offering due to high investor demand: “DB Commodity...
- External links 2009-11-05
- A Nation of Zombie Households
- “The primary difference between Japan and the United States at this point of their respective monetary malaises is that whereas Japan created a nation of zombie corporations, the United States is creating a nation of zombie households.” - James Aitken, Aitken Advisors by The Pragmatic Capitalist
- External links 2009-11-09
- Who Is the Mystery Buyer?
- I don’t know if any characteristic of this massive 6 month rally has been more apparent than the huge futures run-ups we’ve seen at random points during the trading day. Without news, the S&P 500 futures get gunned on huge volume and surge higher. I’ve seen it...
- External links 2009-11-10
- Recovery Is Real, But Vulnerable - UPS
- Bullish comments out of UPS this morning. Although we’ve been seeing some very weak data out and commentary of the transport sector, UPS UPS is bucking the trend. They think the recovery is real and could continue throughout 2010 as volumes surge. At a meeting in...
- External links 2009-11-11
- Meredith Whitney Now Expects a Double Dip
- Great interview here from the prescient Meredith Whitney. She is now expecting a double dip recession and has turned bearish again on the banks: by The Pragmatic Capitalist
- External links 2009-11-17
- John Mack: Inside the Bunker
- A great inside look at what John Mack and Morgan Stanley was dealing with last year at this time: by The Pragmatic Capitalist
- External links 2009-11-19
- Traders Betting on 60%+ Rise in Silver
- Today’s trade of the day brings you the silver trade. Some wildly bullish options activity was seen in sizable purchases of the Silver ETF SLV. Investors expect as much of a 66% gain in silver prices over the coming two years. It would certainly be interesting to...
- External links 2009-11-19
- Homebuyer Tax Credit: The Moneypit Is Alive and Well
- The government continues to throw money into that giant hole they keep in the Capitol’s basement. This time the money is going towards an extension of the first time homebuyers tax credit. CR is reporting that it’s essentially a done deal. I’d like to think that...
- External links 2009-10-28
- Transport Sector Confirms Economic Weakness
- Nothing has been more confounding during this equity rally than the weakness in the underlying fundamentals of the transports. Without fail, the data from the transports has been an excellent leading indicator in past recessions. Warren Buffett has even admitted that the rail data is his single favorite...
- External links 2009-10-27
- Credit Crisis Indicators Are Improving, But Does It Matter?
- By just about any metric, we've seen a drastic improvement in the credit crisis indicators. The corporate bond market has found a bid in recent weeks, the TED spread is improving, the LIBOR/OIS spread is improving and the two-year swap spread is substantially healthier. by The Pragmatic Capitalist
- External links 2009-01-15
- Stimulus Can't Save the Stock Market
- By now we all know that governments around the globe have implemented the largest single stimulus plan in the history of economics. There is no doubt that the global stimulus plans have been highly effective. What is less certain is how much of the underlying structural problem we...
- External links 2009-09-04
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