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- S&P 500 P/E Ratio: Still Above Long Term Lows
- Warren Buffet's encouraging op-ed in the New York Times Friday may have inspired some buyers Friday morning, but after a world-wide credit crisis, weakening home prices, and the crumbling of several of the world's most prestigious financial institutions, how much will investors really be willing to pay for earnings. Shown...
- External links 2008-10-19
- Mutual Fund Returns: Don't Follow the Herd
- From 1962 through the third quarter of 2009 the S&P 500 had an average annual return of 8.71%; the weighted average US mutual fund was up 1.18%. (By weighted we mean adjusted for the funds’ sizes. A $100mln fund that is up 50% should not offset the $5bln...
- External links 2009-11-02
- Q3 Earnings: Best in a Long Time
- The last few days have everyone wondering whether the rally can continue. Is the market's move supported by the fundamentals, and can the economy recover fast enough to drive further earnings growth? Looking strictly at reported earnings so far this quarter, S&P 500 companies continue to report...
- External links 2009-10-28
- 10 Year Return on the S&P 500 Since 1955
- Below we highlight the simple rolling ten year return on the S&P 500 since 1955 (note that this is simple return, not total return). The shaded areas on the chart are periods of negative return. The great bull market lasting from 1982 to 2000 brought this calculation has...
- External links 2009-10-13
- Has the Rig Count Finally Bottomed?
- Baker Hughes BHI released the results of their international rig count this afternoon which finally showed a month over month gain. Both US and foreign oil and gas rigs in operation peaked in 2008 and declined 55% from peak to trough in the US. The US count bottomed...
- External links 2009-10-07
- July Rally Has Strategists Raising Targets
- Four prominent financial institutions have either raised their S&P 500 year end targets or EPS estimates last week. Below we detail those forecasts and where the consensus for the market. Currently the average price target is 1007 or a further 3% rally through the end of the year...
- External links 2009-07-27
- Think Twice Before Jumping on Lower Microsoft
- Microsoft MSFT is down on earnings this morning and might been seen as buying opportunity. The history however does not support this conclusion. Since 2000 Microsoft has opened down significantly (in excess of 5%) a total of 13 times, in 9 of those instances the stock continued lower...
- External links 2009-07-24
- Don't Expect Big Things from Apple Today
- After reporting earnings and issuing the expected weaker guidance, Apple AAPL is up $5.65 versus yesterday's close. Below we look at other positive responses to an earnings report from Apple and show that on average the stock is flat during open market trading. This says nothing about the...
- External links 2009-07-22
- Is the Growth Correction Ending?
- Since the middle of 2007 the S&P 500 Pure Growth index has clearly outperformed the same value index. Between the December 2008 high and the March 2009 low the growth stocks remained relatively stable some even gained while most value stocks declined to make a new low. Growth's...
- External links 2009-07-08
- Have Earnings Expectations for the S&P 500 Finally Bottomed?
- Since September of 2008 we have seen 2009's YoY earnings expectations for the S&P 500 steadily decline. You may recall that for the first half of 2008 many analysts were expecting an earnings recovery, and thus forecasting 20 - 25% growth in '09. The severity of the crisis...
- External links 2009-06-14
- S&P 500 Net Overbought / Oversold Reading
- We commonly refer to the overbought and oversold characteristics of stocks, indices, commodities - anything with a price. There has been some question about what methodology we use to determine the thresholds of overbought and oversold. Birinyi Associates uses a system similar to Bollinger bands, but not identical. ...
- External links 2009-05-14
- Bear Market Rally or Bull Market Correction?
- The debate continues over the path of the market: bloggers continue to be bullish, and strategists are expecting a 20% gain in 2009, but $900 gold, the recent sell-off in stocks and wary economic news has kept bears calling for further declines. On December 1, Birinyi Associates did not...
- External links 2009-01-26
- Banking Is Tanking Worse Than Ever
- Bank stocks are currently in a decline worse than any in their history; including the Great Depression. As shown below, as of 1/21/09 the KBW Bank Index had declined 78.5% from its 2007 peak; in the 1930s the New York City Bank Index declined 78.1% in the same time...
- External links 2009-01-23
- As Long as EPS Continues to Fall, Market Gains Will Be Unsustainable
- Part 1 of Birinyi Associates' Global Outlook for 2009 details forecasts and estimates for US markets and stocks, specifically the S&P 500, its members, and their sectors and groups. Comparing bottoms up estimates to the top-down forecasts issued by market strategists, we find that most market commentators are generally...
- External links 2009-01-15
- January: Expect Gains
- Happy New Year! If market history is any guide, 2009 should begin on a good note. We analyzed the DJIA going back to 1900 and looked for years where the index was down 20% or more. Surprisingly there were only 11 instances including 2008; and only one...
- External links 2009-01-02
- The Great Volume Expansion
- US market volume has been expanding enormously since 2005. There has been a lot of scuttlebutt this year regarding a lack of volume, usually referring to NYSE trading because of its availability. The chart below shows NYSE floor volume as reported by the exchange in red (this is...
- External links 2009-11-10
Additional Resources
- Dow 30 Trading Ranges
- Below we highlight the 30 Dow members with respect to their various trading ranges. After the recent volatility in the markets (S&P 500 +2.9% on Tuesday, -1.8% yesterday) some of these stocks are on the move. BAC had traded at its theoretical high of $34 and has declined over the...
- External links 2008-08-07
- US Major Index and Sector Bull/Bear Filter
- Between 7/15 and 7/23 the S&P 500 financial sector rallied 30% over 8 days and marked the beginning of a new bull market after its 54% decline from 2/20/07 to 7/15/08. Birinyi Associates defines bull and bear markets based on the traditional definition of a 20% gain or loss from...
- External links 2008-08-07
- U.S. Job Losses Continue Piling Up
- This morning's initial jobless claims number in conjunction with higher than expected CPI was disheartening as S&P 500 futures saw a prompt 10pt drop. The US job market continues to weaken: there were 450k new jobless claims last week and the previous number was revised up from 455k to 460k. ...
- External links 2008-08-14
- S&P 500 Key Sector Relative Strength
- There has been much talk recently of firms unwinding their long commodity and short financial strategies. The energy sector experienced a quick 20% decline and financial stocks began to look attractive, for a minute. Below we look at selected sectors' relative strength versus the S&P 500. The chart begins on...
- External links 2008-08-20
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