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- Still Stuck in Our Triangle: Poor Industrial Activity and Best Buy Weighs in
- Trader Mark submits: First, we once again bounced off the 20 day moving average exponential with the late day move from S&P 920 to 924ish in the closing minutes. Whew, another late day stick save. Color me shocked.This is a tricky play because for months it has been...
- External links 2009-06-16
- The Economy Is so Bad, Even Pawn Shops Are Suffering
- Trader Mark submits: I am just shaking my head at this mirage of prosperity we are living in... all due to the "stock market telling us things are just dandy". You should know from October 2007 that the stock market is a lousy indicator of the coming 4-6 months, but...
- External links 2009-06-15
- Where Will S&P 500 Earnings Come from This Year?
- Trader Mark submits: Bargains galore - keep buying says FT.com Alphaville. Per this data set from Barron's, we're sitting at a nice trailing 130 PE ratio.Thankfully the market is forward looking or I'd be concerned ... on a serious note, obviously the financials created a train wreck in 2008...
- External links 2009-06-15
- A Year and a Half Later, the Mainstream Press Gets "Underemployment"
- Trader Mark submits: While blog readers have been exposed to the truth for nearly 2 years now, the main stream press is finally understanding reality. I was almost joyous when I read this AP story since someone finally "gets it": Temp Work Helps Mask Joblessness Among Americans. As...
- External links 2009-06-07
- An Update on Our Moving Averages and Bond Sales
- Trader Mark submits: I wanted to do a quick update on our 200 day moving averages; we discussed the disparity between "simple" moving averages and "exponential" last week, in regards to the 200 day. [Jun 3: Why I Use the Exponential Moving Average]At the time the 200 day exponential was...
- External links 2009-06-11
- Dueling Market Charts Make Forecast Cloudy
- Trader Mark submits: Adding to the normal moving parts in the market, we are going to be stuck with 2 very different index charts for a while it appears.On the simple moving averages we bounced off the 200 day moving average, on schedule yesterday and rallied before selling off late...
- External links 2009-06-18
- A Surprisingly Weak Market
- Trader Mark submits: Well not much of a rally after all from midday yesterday; we had our closing minute "mark up" rally late yesterday, but it has been quite weak today despite initial strength in Europe.With my exponential moving averages, we are firmly below the 50 day moving average and...
- External links 2009-07-07
- Darden, Longtop Financial and the Two Chart Market
- Trader Mark submits: I did not realize Darden Restaurants DRI reports this week. so I am going to cover my short ahead of that event; as much as I don't bet on the long side ahead of an earnings, I won't do the same on the short side. I am...
- External links 2009-06-23
- New Government Policy: Tax Credit as Mortgage Down Payment
- Trader Mark submits: I've become numb a long time ago, but seeing these programs and "solutions" one after the other is simply.... I don't have words. Just enjoy - last week we mentioned how some states had created a work around to use the tax rebate (i.e....
- External links 2009-05-14
- Ten-Year Bond Surges 3.2%: Where Are the Green Shoots?
- Trader Mark submits: Boy oh boy, we have some interesting times coming. At least the "inflation" trade is winning the deflation vs. inflation battle. The whole key for Ben Bernanke is finding the sweet spot, where he can stoke prices but not to a point that it disturbs long-term rates....
- External links 2009-05-04
- S&P: Rangebound for a Month Now
- Trader Mark submits: The 20 day moving average we have been watching moved up from S&P 886 last week to 888 this week and Thursday morning YET again, bounced precisely I use exponential moving average over simple for those who ask. It is remarkable how consistent this has been since...
- External links 2009-05-28
- Commodities' Best Month Since 1974 - Is This Supposed to Be Good News?
- Trader Mark submits: As HAL9000 and the program traders jump from theme to theme, commodities has struck a fire - not 60 days ago deflation was all the scourge - now it is inflation. Notice how the stock market has become like a fantasy football game? Each and every economic...
- External links 2009-06-01
- Cutting Back on Meritage Homes ahead of Mortgage Application Data
- Trader Mark submits: While I think there is far too much kneejerk reaction today to day economic reports, as if 1 number changes the face of the game, the bulls have been leaning heavily on the weekly mortgage application data as some sort of green shoot. Notwithstanding that applications are...
- External links 2009-06-01
- Closing SL Green Short as the Fed Rewards REITs
- Trader Mark submits: With the Federal Reserve indeed following through last week on the lobbyists' months-long push to include legacy commercial real estate debt into their TALF program[Feb 23, 2009: Fed May Need to Recast TALF on Commercial Real Estate] [Jan 13, 2009: Bailout Nation Continues in Commercial Real Estate...
- External links 2009-05-26
- Bright Spots in the Economy - Spam, Running Shoes, Gardening Seeds and Tanning Products
- Trader Mark submits: A year ago we mentioned how the "Spam" Indicator propriety indicator here at Fund My Mutual Fund was signaling recession even as the Bush rebate was flooding the economy with paper dollars to hide the fact. We quickly forget, but you remember that R word was not...
- External links 2009-05-18
- Why I'm Buying October 95 SPY Puts
- Trader Mark submits: In late June, I decided to make a slight change in how I hedge; before I had been using a lot of 2x type ETF instruments which frankly cannot be held for more than a few days, as they degrade horrifically in a volatile environment. One option...
- External links 2009-08-12
- Thoughts on SPY Calls and Yet Another Housing Subsidy
- Trader Mark submits: I dumped all my October SPY calls bought earlier this week, throughout the day with the last 5% batch out near S&P 1066. Probably should have waited til the now traditional "post 3:30 PM ramp into the close", but it's been a good enough run for me....
- External links 2009-09-16
- Silver Is Perking up; Clunkers Housing-Style Is Working Wonders
- Trader Mark submits: OK, I admit it - I enjoyed Tuesday. Being agnostic on which way the market goes with our top line strategy, I just care that the market does something and preferably in the near- term direction we're weighted. Based on that not-so-nice close ("someone" showed up right...
- External links 2009-09-02
- America: A Bona Fide Plutonomy
- Trader Mark submits:Surfing around this weekend I happened upon some review's of Michael Moore's "Capitalism: A Love Story". Reading some of the UK paper's view of the movie, I saw an interesting reference to an internal 2006 Citigroup memo regarding "America, which has turned into a modern day plutonomy"....
- External links 2009-09-08
- Cutting Riverbed Ahead of Earnings
- Trader Mark submits: I am simply repeating what I did with Skyworks Solutions SWKS late Tuesday afternoon with Riverbed Technology RVBD. In both we had scintillating runs, exceeding my expectations. I am going to lock in my gains and let the after hour games go on without me (RVBD...
- External links 2009-07-23
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