The relevance of bargaining to everyday life can easily be ascertained, yet the study of any bargaining process is extremely hard, involving a multiplicity of questions and complex issues. The objective of this paper is to provide new insights on some dimensions of the bargaining process - asymmetries and uncertainties...
The central aim of this paper is that the state-contingent approach provides the best vides way to think about all t problems in the economics of uncertainty, including problems of consumer choice, the theory of the firm, and principal - agent relationships. This claim is illustrated by nowadays developments in,...
This paper investigates the analytical and empirical linkages between firms' capital investment behavior and financial market frictions. The empirical approach constructs measures of own- and market-specific uncertainty from firms' daily stock returns and S&P 500 index returns along with a CAPM-based risk measure. The results indicate that even in the...
There are more than 20 measures of uncertainty and many modeling paradigms. The research question is, "How do we know which is the right choice in an OR/MS situation?" The author's talk listed some of these choices and pointed to a background paper and bibliography. Here the author summarizes this...
Critical Chain Management is a relative new way of handling the variability in project schedules. The clue is to establish a chain of critical activities and chains of non-critical activities. In the chains are connected buffers to take care of uncertainty in the time plan. The management consists in deciding...
Most R&D projects are confronted with high levels of uncertainty. The management of these projects requires a different approach than the traditional network techniques would prescribe. The project management literature recognises this and offers a series of methods to master uncertainty, in order to extend the domain of application of...
Internet related firms experienced an extremely high degree of underpricing in the year 1999 and 2000. Two explanations for this phenomenon are examined, the changing-risk composition hypothesis and the overreaction hypothesis. Empirical tests are conducted in three stages: first trading day, short-run, and long-run performances. The results suggest that the...
At times when life seems to be getting us down or we're going through a period of stress, loss or uncertainty, it's important to take special care of ourselves! Make sure you look after yourself so that you're ready to tackle life full on. If you've recently experienced loss or...
Uncertainty has been regarded as a threat or challenge to organizations but it also represents an opportunity. For innovation and New Product Development NPD Kessler and Bierly (2002) suggest that time-based strategies are most effective under conditions of low uncertainty. In contrast, Chen, Reilly, and Lynn (2005) reach different conclusions...
A complex system is a system with many components and interconnections, interactions, or interdependencies that are difficult to describe, understand, predict, manage, design, or change. Complex technical systems are characterized by the level of complexity and uncertainty. Uncertainty appears mainly in system behaviors and the ways different aspects of a...
This paper describes the approach to handle uncertainties in project planning. This approach includes development and implementation of the risk model which describes these uncertainties followed by running a simulation to generate predefined project outcomes or the most critical parameters. It also touched briefly on several available tools and provided...
This paper seeks to determine the optimal order amount for the retailer given uncertainty in a supply-chain's logistics network due to unforseeable disruption or various types of defects (e.g. shipping damage, missing parts and misplacing products). Mixture distribution models characterize problems from solitary failures and contingent events causing network to...
Managers may deal with supply uncertainty by holding excess inventory used when supply is less than expected or by having an alternative, reliable, and possibly more expensive backup source. However, organizations are often driven by the need to improve efficiency by contracting with fewer low cost suppliers. This paper models...
This white paper document proposes a resolution-optimal planner that considers uncertainty while optimizing any monotonic objective function such as mobility cost, risk, energy expended, etc. The resulting path is a one that minimizes the expected cost value of the objective function, while ensuring that the uncertainty in the position of...
The paper presents a stochastic methodology for handling uncertainty in process development as part of a general framework for batch and continuous process models. The method combines systematic modelling procedures with Hammersley sampling based uncertainty analysis and a range of sample-based sensitivity analysis techniques, used to quantify predicted performance uncertainty...
Fiscal uncertainty has led many states to utilize a variety of economic and revenue forecasting methods. To improve accuracy, many budget analysts use alternative projections generated by different techniques. This paper examines the effectiveness of composite forecasting of sales tax revenues. Baseline projections are provided by an econometric model and...
In today’s business environment, deviations from expectations are punished harshly, not only for underperformance but also for erratic over-performance where companies are seen to be surprising even themselves. Past patterns of ignoring uncertainty - with single-number forecasts - cause many dysfunctional behaviors in organizations. This Executive Summary of an SDG...
The underlying premise of enterprise risk management is that every entity exists to provide value for its stakeholders. All entities face uncertainty, and the challenge for management is to determine how much uncertainty to accept as it strives to grow stakeholder value. Uncertainty presents both risk and opportunity, with the...
This paper deals with the influence of cultural attitudes towards uncertainty on the level of business ownership across countries. First, the concepts of uncertainty and risk are elaborated, as well as their relevance for entrepreneurship. Second, cross-sectional regression analysis using data for three separate years in twenty Western countries and...
This paper studies the welfare implications of a PAYG pension system in a neoclassical growth model with overlapping generations, demographic uncertainty and sequentially incomplete markets. In absence of public pensions, small cohorts tend to be favored by the changes in relative prices implied by fertility shocks. As described in Bohn,...
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