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- Managing Demand Uncertainty in Supply Chain Planning
- The paper describes a stochastic programming based approach to model the planning process as it reacts to demand realizations unfolding over time. In the proposed bi-level framework, the manufacturing decisions are modeled as 'here-and-now' decisions, which are made before demand realization. Subsequently, the logistics decisions are postponed in a 'wait...
- White papers 2003-02-07
- Uncertainty, Technological Turbulence, Competition-- What's a Manager to Do? Thrive on It
- The article explains about dramatic increases in competitiveness, technological turbulence, deregulation, globalization and information intensity have created perpetual uncertainty in everyday managerial life. This is the kind of uncertainty that eats conventional companies--and traditional management strategies--for breakfast. It used to be that only sectors affected by de-stabilizing events or new...
- White papers 2000-08-30
- Harder For Shippers
- Most industry analysts expect there will be further consolidation among carriers and other aircargo service providers. Moreover, article also talks about the changes and uncertainty which affected the cost and availability of airfreight services and also explains impacts such as fewer flights, inbound rates on the rise, forecast: more uncertainty...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- Embracing Uncertainty in Forecasts and Budgets
- In today's business environment, deviations from expectations are punished harshly, not only for underperformance but also for erratic over-performance where companies are seen to be surprising even themselves. Past patterns of ignoring uncertainty - with single-number forecasts - cause many dysfunctional behaviors in organizations. This Executive Summary of an SDG...
- White papers 2004-09-01
- Leading High Impact Teams: Coping With Uncertainty
- From the executive summary: ‘Coaching is a recent phenomenon in American business that is producing startling and dramatic results. From employees and bosses struggling with the pace of change in a shifting economy to companies grappling to meet demands from market forces that they can no longer predict, all are...
- White papers 2003-01-01
- Leadership In A Time Of Uncertainty
- From the executive summary: ‘The events of September 11 and the ongoing economic downturn have created a business environment of nearly paralyzing uncertainty. As a result, there will be greater demands on the capacity of senior executives to lead than in any recent period in business history. A theory suggests...
- White papers 2002-01-01
- Impact of Uncertainty in Catastrophe Losses on Insurance Derivatives
- This paper aims at quantifying the uncertainty in assessing catastrophe losses and its impact on the pricing of insurance derivatives. Simulations of several models is carried out with an emphasis on quantifying the significance of the uncertainty in the parameters on the pricing of financial securities. Prices of call-spreads are...
- White papers 2002-06-05
- Reliability Engineering and Robust Design: New Methods for Thermal/Fluid Engineering
- The ability to determine the amount of over- or under design present in a thermal/fluid system has been added to SINDA/FLUINT, permitting uncertainties to be treated statistically in addition to traditional deterministic methods. More importantly, the potential to eliminate over-design due to stack-ups of margins, safety factors, and tolerances has...
- White papers 2000-05-15
- Planning With Map Uncertainty
- This white paper document describes an efficient method for planning in environments for which prior maps are plagued with uncertainty. The basic approach processes the map to determine key areas whose uncertainty is crucial to the planning task. It then incorporates the uncertainty associated with these areas using the recently...
- White papers 2004-02-02
- Planning With Uncertainty in Position: An Optimal Planner
- This white paper document proposes a resolution-optimal planner that considers uncertainty while optimizing any monotonic objective function such as mobility cost, risk, energy expended, etc. The resulting path is a one that minimizes the expected cost value of the objective function, while ensuring that the uncertainty in the position of...
- White papers 2004-11-17
- Probabilistic Methods for Uncertainty Propagation Applied to Aircraft Design
- This white discusses about three methods of probabilistic uncertainty propagation and quantification (the method of moments, Monte Carlo simulation, and a non gradient simulation search method) are applied to an aircraft analysis and conceptual design program to demonstrate design under uncertainty. The chosen example problems appear to have discontinuous design...
- White papers 2002-06-19
- A Simple Theory of Asset Pricing Under Model Uncertainty
- The focus of this paper is on the implications of model uncertainty for the cross-sectional properties of returns. We perform our analysis in the context of a tractable single-period mean-variance framework. The paper shows that there is an uncertainty premium in equilibrium expected returns on financial assets and it studies...
- White papers 2002-03-01
- Comparing Probabilistic and Fuzzy Set Approaches for Designing in the Presence of Uncertainty
- Probabilistic models and fuzzy set models describe different aspects of uncertainty. Probabilistic models primarily describe random variability in parameters. In engineering system safety, examples are variability in material properties, geometrical dimensions, or wind loads. In contrast, fuzzy set models of uncertainty primarily describe vagueness, such as vagueness in the definition...
- White papers 2000-08-07
- Model Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Pricing of Derivative Instruments
- Model uncertainty, in the context of derivative pricing, results in mispricing of contingent claims due to uncertainty on the choice of the pricing models. This paper introduces here a quantitative framework for measuring model uncertainty in option pricing models. After discussing some properties, which a quantitative measure of model uncertainty...
- White papers 2004-06-01
- Age Restriction and Property Values
- This study finds evidence of an age restriction premium that is maintained over time and across varying market conditions. Prior research has demonstrated that the reduced uncertainty associated with private covenants and deed restrictions can be capitalized into value. Age-restricted subdivisions provide a measure of certainty that future property owners...
- White papers 2002-01-01
- The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty
- The article investigates the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. It identifies the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty. Such rules respond to the one-year-ahead inflation forecast and to the current output...
- White papers 2002-06-01
- Creating Long Term Sales Success Using Short Term Tactics
- Uncertainty in the current economy can help you close more business now and build your long term results. Sounds counter intuitive, doesn't it? But maybe it isn't counter intuitive at all. Uncertainty makes it hard to plan anything because change seems to be so volatile and unpredictable. Uncertainty causes fear....
- White papers 2009-06-09
- Leadership in Times of Uncertainty: Back to Basics
- In the wake of tragedy, leaders are faced with challenges that stretch their abilities and skills. In this global economy of rapid change and increasing complexity, many leaders struggle to lead their companies in the right direction. Now, more than ever, there is increased uncertainty, more complexity, and more chaos....
- White papers
- Case Study: A Life Sciences Company Meets A Compliance Deadline & Improves Supply Chain Security
- Dealing with and handling change and uncertainty is one of the major challenges each of us faces in nowadays' world. And we face it in our business and personal lives. It can be said that change and uncertainty arrive together and that most people find it much more difficult to...
- White papers 2009-01-01
- Uncertainty's Antidote: Three Leadership Imperatives
- No one knows whether the worst is behind us. This means that. Despite your bold strategies, decisive reactions to market fluctuations and carefully thought out survival plans. Many of your employees are looking for the nearest rock to crawl under. The prevailing attitude is to wait and see how the...
- White papers 2009-01-23
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