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- SAB Miller's New Restructuring Program Is Good News
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock price: p1786 (US$2968) Conclusion: We think that SAB Miller’s (SBMRY.PK) exposure to emerging markets and a possible deal with Femsa (FMXUF.PK) are largely priced in. We revise our valuation range to p1800-p1900 (US$2991-3157) following the announcement of a new restructuring program. by Véronique...
- External links 2009-11-24
- PPR: EPS Growth Likely to Be Held Back
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock Price: €81.9 ($122.20) Conclusion: Notwhistanding recent weakness, PPR (PPRUF.PK) remains fully priced based on our €80-85 valuation range. The risk of dilution related to the CFAO spin off needs to be clarified. Q3 sales down 7.6% reported, down 8% like for like (9m...
- External links 2009-10-21
- Louis Vuitton: Quick Turnaround in 2010 Looks Improbable
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock Price: €73 ($109.49) Conclusion: Stock price close to our valuation range (€75-80 per share). Current P/E look fair considering the resilience of Vuitton (LVMH.PK) but also the low visibility affecting the rest of the portfolio. by Véronique Adam
- External links 2009-10-21
- Diageo: Weak Demand for Spirits to be Offset by Forex Impact, Cost Efficiencies
- Veronique Adam submits: Diageo Stock price (LSE): p962 (approx. $1,558) Conclusion: Both our investment case and valuation (p980-1050/$1,588-$1,701) remain unchanged following Q1 trading update. Stock fairly priced. Q1 sales down 6% like for like. F10 guidance confirmed: low single digit growth in operating profit. by Véronique Adam
- External links 2009-10-15
- Burberry: Trading Update Provides Good News
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock Price: 565p Conclusion: Trading update leads us to upgrade our F10 estimate by 5.6%. Burberry (BBRYF.PK) stock price stands slightly above our revised valuation range of p540-550. H1 Trading update: Sales up 6% reported, down 5% underlying in H1. Guidance: selling space up...
- External links 2009-10-14
- Luxottica's Short, Long Term Outlooks Are Very Different
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock price: €17.8 (US$26.2) Conclusion: Luxottica LUX shares (up 40% YTD) anticipate a strong turnaround in profits next year. We think it might take longer than expected. Valuation stands above our target range of €15-17 per share. Following two years of declining earnings (-20%...
- External links 2009-10-09
- Henkel's Recent Rerating Might Not Be Sustainable
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock price: €29 (US$42.3) Conclusion: Multiples almost in line with HPC peers, which might not be sustainable. Our valuation range (€24-26 per share) suggests some downside risk. H1: Sales down 6% like for like (down 1.3% reported to €6.7bn), adjusted net earnings down 34%...
- External links 2009-10-06
- Beiersdorf: 2 Reasons Why It's Too Expensive
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock Price: €38,8 ($56.75) Conclusion: Beiersdorf (BDRFF.PK) looks expensive based on our valuation range of €34-36 ($50-53) per share. We find the stock expensive for two reasons: by Véronique Adam
- External links 2009-10-05
- Swatch: Not Much Upside
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock price: SF 240 Conclusion: Rerating looks behind us. Our valuation SF240-260 does not leave much upside. H1: Sales down 15% like for like (-16.7% reported to SF2.3bn), net income fell by 28% tp SF301m. Guidance: sales in H2 comparable, or even better...
- External links 2009-10-01
- Cadbury: Can Management Refuse a Kraft Offer?
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock price: p797 ($1,321.96) Conclusion: unchanged since September 7th, little upside left. by Véronique Adam
- External links 2009-10-21
- Expect Nestle to Rise on Strong Performance
- Veronique Adam submits: Nestle's (NSRGY.PK) accelerating growth and share buy back lead us to raise our valuation range to SF48-52 per share. The stock is currently trading at SF46.6. 9 months sales down 2.2% reported, up 3.6% like for like. Reiterating 2009 guidance: growth in Q4 to...
- External links 2009-10-23
- PPR: Recent Weakness Offers Good Entry Point
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock price: €82.2 ($117.75) Conclusion: Recent stock weakness offers a good entry point. The discount to luxury peers has widened to 30%. Notwithstanding the dilution related to CFAO listing, we expect further portfolio restructuring. CFAO launches its IPO - Entreprise value range €1750-2050m by...
- External links 2009-11-18
- Anheuser-Busch Inbev: Good Geographic Mix and Superior Execution
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock price: €34 ($51.09) Conclusion: Favorable geographic mix coupled with superior execution. We raise our valuation range to €39-41 per share. 9 months: revenue growth +1.8% organic (+81% reported to $30bn), beer volume down 1.4% , EBITDA growth +18% organic (+67% reported). Guidance: EBITDA...
- External links 2009-11-18
- 3 Reasons Puma Is Headed for a Rebound in 2010
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock price: €231 (US$345) Conclusion: Improved visibility on the bottom line, coupled with a potential bid from PPR (PPRUF.PK), Puma’s (PMMAF.PK) main shareholder, should propel further upside. We estimate the fair price of Puma within a valuation range of €260-275 (US$389-411), excluding a bid premium. by...
- External links 2009-11-10
- Unilever Offers Little Upside Based on Earnings Outlook
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock price: €20.2 ($29.8) Conclusion: Top line slowing down at a time when peers are accelerating. Never ending restructuring. Better opportunities elsewhere (cf our Nestle (NSRGY.PK) comment) based on our estimated fair value range of €19-21 ($28-31) per share. Q3 results: Sales down 2%...
- External links 2009-11-05
- Looking for Further Upside in Heineken
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock price: €30.4 ($44.8) Conclusion: Looking for further upside. We confirm our valuation range of €35-40 ($52-59) per share in light of Q3 trading update. Q3 trading update: sales down 3.9% to €4bn, almost flat like for like (-0.4%), adjusted EBIT up double digit....
- External links 2009-11-05
- Why Reckitt Benckiser Seems Fully Valued
- Veronique Adam submits: In spite of upgraded guidance for Reckitt Benckiser Group (RBGPF.PK), we stick to our valuation range of £32-33 ($52.2-$53.8) per share. The 15% return we were looking for is now behind us and we feel that the stock looks fairly priced. Further re-rating would require improved...
- External links 2009-10-28
- Four Factors that Will Hold Back Pernod Ricard's Growth Momentum
- Veronique Adam submits: Pernod Ricard (PDRDF.PK) Stock price: €56.1($84.2) Conclusion: The stock further re-rated since September (up 9%), reaching our valuation range of €55-58 ($82.6-87.1). We expect it to consolidate around this level. Although we expect like for like growth to accelerate in H2, we think that EPS growth...
- External links 2009-10-27
- Increased Volume Could Hurt Danone's Medium-Term Guidance
- Veronique Adam submits: Danone's (DANOY.PK) rebound in volume is coming at a huge cost, so we are waiting for revised medium term guidance. The valuation looks full in light of our estimated range of €40-43 per share. 9 months: sales down 2.2% reported, up 2.4% like for like (Q3...
- External links 2009-10-23
- Carlsberg: Too Soon to Expect a Rebound
- Veronique Adam submits: Stock Price: DKK 319,5 (US$62.4) Conclusion: Too early to play a rebound. 10% discount to brewers (based on 2010 estimates) looks justified in light of the poor visibility which is affecting the Russian beer market. First half 2009: Sales +9% reported, flat like for...
- External links 2009-09-30
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