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- Variant Perceptions and Betting Against the Consensus
- I told [a summer intern] that ideally he should be able to tell me, in two minutes, four things: 1) the idea; 2) the consensus view; 3) his variant perception; and 4) a trigger event. No mean feat. In those instances where there was no variant perception -- that is,...
- Blog posts 2007-11-14
Additional Resources
- Variant Perception: Sears Holdings and Financials
- Tsachy Mishal submits: Michael Steinhardt was possibly the best hedge fund manager of all time, with an enviable track record. When analysts brought an idea to him, he required that the idea be different from the market consensus. Of course, the idea had to have solid logical backing as well....
- External links 2008-08-31
- South Africa's Recession Continues Even as the Rand Surges
- Edward Hugh submits: "The banking sector in South Africa has insubstantial leverage and did not enter in to excessively risky lending practices that were the hallmarks of the credit-boom days. However, South Africa’s Current Account Deficit remains wide and its ability to service its short-term debt is on the...
- External links 2009-08-24
- Spain Crumbles
- Felix Salmon submits: Neil Unmack is constructive about Spain in general, and Spanish banks in particular: Santander knows its own loan book better than anyone, he says, and if it’s happy to buy back billions of euros of its own bonds at 82% of par, it probably knows something...
- External links 2009-08-25
- More Comedy from the Spanish Banking System
- Edward Hugh submits: Going through the Variant Perception report on the perilous state of Spain's banking system, I couldn't help stopping and thinking hard about this point from the Spanish newspaper Expansion: The valuation of the guarantees of the mortgage book of the cajas and banks and of its...
- External links 2009-08-25
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