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- Why AmEx Becoming a Bank Holding Company is a Positive Move
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: American Express AXP becoming a bank holding company [BHC] is not just net positive for the company it is simply positive. When a highly leveraged investment bank like Goldman Sachs GS turns into a BHC, its future profitability suffers as its leverage drops to...
- External links 2008-11-13
- Four Reasons Investors Are Wrong on IMS Health
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: The word contrarian is often overused in investing - I have yet to meet an investor who bragged about being a crowd follower; therefore, everyone is a contrarian. Contrarian investing is very difficult as it requires one to be on the lonely side of...
- External links 2009-07-16
- Why CAT Reported Better Earnings than Expected
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: It is interesting to observe the excitement the street has with Caterpillar's CAT earnings see conference call transcript. They were better than company thought last quarter, but sales were still down 41%. I have to give CAT credit for cutting costs as much as...
- External links 2009-07-21
- Caterpillar's China Connection
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: It is interesting to observe the excitement the street has with Caterpillar's CAT earnings. They were better than company thought last quarter, but sales were still down 41%. I have to give CAT credit for cutting costs as much as they did. But here...
- External links 2009-07-21
- Caterpillar's Earnings Boosted by China, But Don't Get Excited
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: It is interesting to observe the excitement the Street has with Caterpillar’s CAT earnings. They were better than the company thought last quarter, but sales were still down 41%. I have to give CAT credit for cutting costs as much as they did. But...
- External links 2009-07-22
- The Other Imminent China Bubble
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: Financial commentators are obsessively debating whether the recent rise in the Chinese stock market means there’s a bubble — and if so, when it’s going to burst. My take? Who cares! What happens to the broader Chinese economy is what we should really...
- External links 2009-07-26
- IMS Health: Think Long Term
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: IMS Health RX did not have a spectacular quarter, to put it mildly. Revenue decline on constant currency basis accelerated to 4% from a 2% decline last quarter. Pharmaceutical companies are becoming more stingy and thus RX’s business got pinched. However, most of the...
- External links 2009-07-26
- The Simple Math of 'Staggering' Chinese Growth
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: Chinese non-export economy grew 23% in June! Before you start googling for that number, let me warn you. You won’t find it. I’ve computed it using fifth grade math. Here is what we know: exports constitute about 35% of the Chinese economy...
- External links 2009-07-29
- China's Staggering Growth: Reappraising My Original Position
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: I am not writing this under duress, neither my family nor I were kidnapped by the Chinese government; I simply made a mistake in my last note about China called, “Simple Math of Chinese ‘Staggering’ Growth” and would like to correct it. The...
- External links 2009-07-30
- China's Growth an Accounting 'Miracle'
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: Now we are learning how China has achieved its “miracle growth.” The country showed positive GDP growth while its electricity consumption declined in the beginning of 2009 – creative accounting that makes Enron’s accountants appear as dilettantes. A paper published by John Makin at...
- External links 2009-08-09
- China: Exactly Where Japan Was in the 1980s?
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: I know, I may sound like I’m beating a dead horse – how much printer cartridge can one spill over China? – but I have a very high burden of proof to overcome. Let me demonstrate it by this analogy: Let’s...
- External links 2009-08-23
- What Happens in China Doesn't Stay in China
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: My previous ended with a very insightful conclusion “Need I say more?”. I received a dozen emails that said – you DO need to say more. So here I am saying more: What do we take out of this? ...
- External links 2009-08-25
- 5 Reasons to Avoid the Gold Rush
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head. ...
- External links 2009-09-09
- 5 Reasons to Avoid the Gold Rush
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: The arguments for why one should sell the cat, pawn the mother-in-law and use the proceeds to buy gold are well known: The Fed is printing money faster than you can read this, which will result in inflation; the government is borrowing like a...
- External links 2009-06-19
- As an Investment, Gold's Just a Brick
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: Gold is an important but very different asset class that competes with stocks and bonds. Unlike stocks and bonds, its main attractions are scarcity, durability and resistance to oxidation - it simply never stops shining. In fact, most of the gold ever mined...
- External links 2009-06-18
- Bail Out Capitalism, Not Detroit
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: Government intervention in the financial system via the Troubled Asset Relief Program made me sick to my stomach, but without it, there is a real possibility that our economy would have come to a screeching halt as trust in the financial system was strained...
- External links 2008-11-21
- Jos. A. Banks Tailored to Suit the Times
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: When I think of the Jos. A. Bank JOSB, I think of Yogi Berra’s saying “Nobody goes there because it is too crowded.” Only in the case of JOSB, it sounds like this: “EVERYBODY goes there because it is NOT crowded.” As most...
- External links 2008-12-05
- Exxon Apostasy: A Closer Look at the Oil Giant's Real Valuation
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: A basic property of religion is that the believer takes a leap of faith; that is, believes without expecting proof. Often you find this characteristic of religion in other, more unexpected places–like the stock market. It takes a while for a company to...
- External links 2009-01-05
- Chrysler / Fiat Deal Is Horrible for GM and Ford
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: Fiat’s and Chrysler’s new partnership is borderline good or, at a minimum, a non-event for Chrysler. It’s great for Fiat, but horrible for General Motors GM and Ford F. Chrysler gets access to Fiat’s technology and smaller cars. That’s good, but Fiat doesn’t appear...
- External links 2009-01-22
- BusinessWeek Exhibits Exxon Apostasy
- Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA submits: A very interesting cover story article in BusinessWeek about Exxon Mobil XOM. I am usually skeptical of cover story articles, especially from BusinessWeek because in the past the articles have been contrarian indicators. This time they are on to something (ok, that is...
- External links 2009-02-15
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